Ag EXPO speaker looks into the future of agriculture

By FRITZ BUSCH

Journal Staff Writer

MORTON -- Futurist Bob Treadway predicted what life would be like in the next 15 years Wednesday, at the Minnesota Ag EXPO 2001 at Jackpot Junction Casino Hotel.

He gave farmers reasons to be optimistic.

"You are not victims. You have opportunities," Treadway said. "It's going to be tough in the next few years. But after that, if you can adapt to changes, the future looks very good. Farmers need to form better food chain alliances to prosper in the future."

He said farmers have several options --173; get big, get together or get smarter and innovate.

Change is like a dog's life, he said. What used to take a year to change, changes seven times in one year.

Foresight, flexibility and innovation are the key ingredients for farmers to survive the next 10 years, according to Treadway.

His predictions included that by 2016, computers with human-like (artificial) intelligence would be available for about $1,000.

He said the Asian markets will greatly expand in the coming years, as countries rebound from an economic recession.

Treadway said e-mail and e-commerce would grow exponentially in the near future.

He said farmers should reserve their own web site space to deal with future markets.

"If you don't know how to do that, just do a search for web addresses," Treadway said.

Other Treadway predictions:

* By 2015, plants will have their own web addresses. Plant performance will be computer-monitored to increase growth and production.

Treadway said the technology is already utilized in some greenhouses but molecular circuitry has not advanced enough to make it practical for field application.

* Insect bots (insect-sized robots) will perform field pollination by 2012.

* Large data base information will be downloaded in under five seconds by 2009.

* Farmers will receive $50 per acre in 2008 for plants that remove carbon from the air.

* Wal-Mart and Home Depot will sell hydrogen fuel cells that will provide large amounts of household energy for $7,000 by 2007.

* Crops will be stamped with microscopic bar codes by 2006.

* The Japanese will own over a million robots by 2004.

Treadway displayed his PDA (Personal Digital Assistant) that fit in his hand. The device featured GPS (Global Positioning System), a wireless modem, a tiny high-resolution screen and played music.

After spending 2 1/2 weeks in Asia recently, Treadway was struck by the amount of change that occurred in that part of the world.

"In Bangkok, Thailand, I saw 35 high-rises stopped in mid-construction," Treadway said. "Their economy collapsed so badly, people were starving. Many lost their jobs in the city and went to the country, looking for food. Now they are rebounding."

He predicted a huge market, particularly for grain, for U.S. producers in Asia as its economy improves.

Farmers should subscribe to "The Economist" magazine because it covers global economic news better than any publication, according to Treadway.