Flooding expected, but how much?

By CHRIS VETTER

Journal Staff Writer

NEW ULM -- John Fritsche says that "flooding" is a dirty word. After floods hit New Ulm in 1993 and 1997, it is hard to blame him for not wanting to hear that word again.

But the word just might work its way back into his vocabulary this spring.

Consistently heavy snowfalls this winter have guaranteed that the Minnesota River will be above flood level, according to the National Weather Service in Chanhassen.

The Minnesota River, as it winds through New Ulm, is considered to be at primary flood stage at 796 feet above sea level.

According to the National Weather Service (NWS), there is a 100 percent chance it will be at 796 feet when the river crests in the first or second week of April.

There is a 90 percent chance that the river will be 2 feet above flood level, a 40 percent chance it will be 5 feet above flood level and a 10 percent likelihood it will be 7.5 feet above flood stage, according to NWS.

In 1997, the river reached 811 feet, or about 15 feet above flood level. Gary McDevitt, NWS hydrologist, said there is only a 2 percent chance that the river will hit that mark this spring.

Fritsche recalls the 1997 flood vividly. Students, the National Guard and area residents came to his rescue. His home was surrounded with sandbags to protect the foundation.

He recalls CNN journalists standing ankle deep in water in his mother's potato garden, located adjacent to his house. Reporters also visited his home during dinner.

"The forecasters kept raising the level of water coming," he recalled. "There was no way to predict how much water we would get."

Fritsche has lived at 800 S. Front Street for 40 years. He is familiar with the river's rise in the spring and its occasional flooding.

"I've had the river for a backdoor since 1956," he said. "Every spring is different; no two are alike."

Fritsche carefully monitors the flow of the river in the spring, taking precautions when it starts to rise. He operates a storage shed on his property, where people keep boats and campers for the winter.

"When we get close to 803-804 feet, I'll be calling people and telling them to come pick (their trailers) up and take it home," Fritsche said.

McDevitt said his largest concern areas for flooding is in Montevideo, St. Peter and Henderson. A large snowpack in southern Minnesota will fill the Blue Earth River, which flows into the Minnesota River.

The 90-day forecast does not help matters, McDevitt added.

"From March to May, we are expecting normal temperatures but above average levels of precipitation," he said. "It's not a good scenario for keeping the flood crest low."

The 90-day forecasts are factored into the projects for the water level, McDevitt said.

The current weather projections were accumulated a week ago -- before last weekend's snowstorms. Another flood forecast will be issued March 9 that will include updated precipitation numbers.

Flooding is more likely to happen if temperatures rise suddenly.

"If it turns around and gets warm and melts snow both during the day and at night, it is more likely to flood," McDevitt said.

McDevitt is particularly concerned about the ground saturation levels right now. It takes several inches of snow to equate to an inch of actual water.

"We're looking at 3 to 5 inches of water content on the ground right now," McDevitt said. "For this time of year, that is quite a bit."

Usually, there are only 2 to 3 inches of water content on the ground by April 1.

"March generally provides us with another 1 to 2 inches of liquid precipitation," McDevitt said, meaning there is a potential for 5 to 7 inches of water content on the ground.

Meanwhile, the Cottonwood River in rural New Ulm is considered at flood stage at 807 feet above sea level.

"There is an 80 percent chance that the Cottonwood River will reach the flooding stage in the next 90 days," McDevitt said.

However, there is only a 30 percent chance it will rise 2 feet, which causes moderate flooding. There is a 20 percent change the Cottonwood River will rise 3 feet above flood stage, which would cause major flooding.

McDevitt readily admits that projecting the level of water is an inexact science. In 1997, New Ulm received 3 inches of rainfall in the first week of April, right at the time of the river crest, he said.

"Mother Nature can throw some dirty tricks at us," he said.

McDevitt suggested a few things that people can do to prepare for flooding, such as removing items from the basement, obtaining sandbags and purchasing flood insurance, which must be purchased 30 days before a loss.

Perry Johnson, who lives at 1725 S. Valley, also vividly recalls the sudden rise of the Minnesota in 1997. He lives only a block away from the river.

"It was quite an experience," he said. "I was totally surprised the water got that high. There is a fire hydrant outside the front of my house. Only the top inch was showing."

Johnson is confident that the river will not flood too much. He spent Thursday putting new carpet in his basement, although his basement flooded in 1997.

"We had more snow then, and the river has been low all year," Johnson said. "That's why I don't think it will be a problem. It will probably get in my backyard, which is no big deal."

Fritsche is hopeful that the ground will thaw, keeping water in the fields.

"Hopefully, the water will go into the ground and not into the river," he said.

Fritsche will continue monitoring the water levels, saying he isn't sure what to expect.

"You can't predict a flood," he said. "All you can do is sit and wait and hope, and see how close the forecasters will be."

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For graphics about the water level, Web users can visit www.crh.noaa.gov/mpx/