Floods still likely

By CHRIS VETTER

Journal Staff Writer

NEW ULM -- The chances of flooding have not decreased in the past two weeks, despite a mild March.

Below-normal temperatures are making snow melt at a slower than anticipated pace, said Gary McDevitt, hydrologist with the National Weather Service.

The NWS unveiled its new flooding projections Friday, which are similar to numbers released March 9.

"The positive thing is we haven't had any really significant precipitation," McDevitt said Friday. "But a negative is we are below normal temperatures. The weather next week isn't condusive to melting the snowpack."

The Minnesota River in New Ulm is considered to be at flood stage at 796 feet. There is a hundred percent chance the river will be above that mark when the river crests in early- to mid-April.

According to the newest projections, there is a 98 percent chance the river will be three feet above flood stage, an 80 percent chance it will be four feet above flood level, and a 20 percent chance it will be seven feet above flood stage.

In 1997, flood levels reached 811 feet in New Ulm. McDevitt does not anticipate those numbers will be repeated this year.

Again, these numbers have not shifted much in the past two weeks. The chances of flooding is slightly higher than March 9.

"I did expect them to go up a little bit," McDevitt said.

While McDevitt wants to see a mixture of temperatures where snow is melting during the day and freezing at night, he fears the process is going to slow.

"I'm fearful that we'll have a sudden warmup that will melt the snowpack," he said. "I am concerned thse numbers are on the low side."

The longer the cool temperatures keep snow on the ground, the more likely the snow will still be around for heavy April rains, he adds.

The Cottonwood River on the southwest side of New Ulm has similar flooding projections from two weeks ago. There is a 98 percent chance the river will be one foot above flood stage, an 80 percent chance it will be two feet higher and a 50 percent chance it will be three feet higher than flood stage, NWS reports.

Tom Patterson, New Ulm street commissioner, met earlier this week with city and utility officials about flood planning, and another meeting will occur next week.

"I think we'll be in good shape," Patterson said after reviewing the newest flood numbers. "I think (if it tops at) 802 feet, we're pretty safe. It shouldn't effect the basements. At 802 foot, it doesn't bring water up to any buildings in town."

Patterson said the meetings focus on the city's role if flooding does get worse.

"It's a discussion of rights and responsibilities," he said.

For instance, Patterson wants to know if utility workers can cut off utilities, if needed.

"If their basement is flooded, it might be in everyone's best interests to shut off the utilities," he said.

While Patterson is optimistic that flooding won't be a problem, he will continue to monitor water flow. He believes the 20th South waste water station will not be a concern like it was during the last serious flood.

While the Minnesota River projections are relatively unchanged, McDevitt said the Mississippi River looks in better shape than two weeks ago.

The slower-melting icepack in Northern Minnesota means less water in the system when the Mississippi and Minnesota Rivers converge, he said.