Fewer students, fewer dollars

District 88

faces declining

enrollment

By GUY PRIEL

Journal Staff Writer

NEW ULM -- Projections of dropping enrollments during the next five years were the driving force behind recent budget cuts and the determination to propose an excess levy referendum.

The referendum is designed to increase district revenue by an additional $450 per pupil unit, bringing in approximately $6.2 million over the five years.

The goal is to maintain existing programs and a fund balance of at least $1.2 million as a financial cushion, Superintendent Harold Remme said.

All registered voters will be receiving their ballots in the mail beginning today. The district approved budget cuts on April 13.

"If a referendum passes, everything on the list will not be reinstated, but we will be able to bring some of them back," Remme said. "I emphasize some, because we are still needing to maintain a certain level of funding to make us fiscally responsible."

In determining the need for cuts, the district looked at enrollment figures and developed projections for the next five years, which would be the time line for a referendum, if it is passed.

The projections are based on actual enrollments for the 1999-2000 school year, annual census data gathered by district officials, birth records at New Ulm Medical Center and other hospitals where district residents are born, and numbers gathered during preschool screenings.

Currently, there are 2,630 students in the district, with the lowest numbers in grades kindergarten through fifth. There has been a gradual decline at all grade levels since 1996.

The projected enrollment for the 2000-2001 school year is 2,560, a loss of 51 students. If the trend continues, there will be an overall decrease by 2004 of 399 students.

"We can be fairly accurate of our numbers for 2000-2001, but the numbers become less firm after that," Remme said. "We can't say these predictions are true, they are only predictions at this point."

Because state funding, which provides approximately 48 percent of the district's budget, is based on the number of pupils enrolled, the Legislature establishes a funding formula based on what is known as a pupil unit, which varies per grade level.

For example, for the 2000-2001 school year, 127 kindergarten students are the equivalent of 70.74 pupil units, and 237 seniors are the equivalent of 308.1 pupil units. So, 2,560 students are the equivalent of 3,013.77 pupil units.

"Because of that, you can't always make a one-on-one calculation, and cutting one teacher is not always the easy answer," Remme said.

The loss of 100 students, with class sizes of approximately 25, would, theoretically, mean the need to cut four teachers. But, when the math is done, it only means a net loss of approximately eight students per grade level, or one student per classroom, he said.

"If you figure four teachers at an approximate salary of $35,000, the district saves $140,000 by cutting them," Remme said. "The revenue loss for 100 students, at $5,142 per pupil unit would amount to $514,200."

The net loss to the district, if the teachers are maintained, would still be $374,200, which over a period of time will affect the overall fund balance, Remme said.

Part of the population trend is based on the lack of affordable housing in New Ulm, the lack of employment opportunities for younger families, and the aging of the population in New Ulm, as expanding metro area growth moves southeast instead of southwest, as originally projected, according to information from the Minnesota Department of Commerce.