Area

population

declining

Brown County,

New Ulm population

drop approximately

1.4 percent in 3 years

By RON LARSEN

Journal Staff Writer

Back in October 2002, the State Demographic Center released population projections through 2030 that predicted a slow-but-steady population gain for Brown County and New Ulm through 2010. Population then would grow at a steeper rate through 2030.

However, the U.S. Census Bureau has released updated annual estimates that show that since the 2000 Census the population of Brown County, New Ulm and several counties to the west of Nicollet and Blue Earth counties is steadily declining.

According to SDC projections, Brown County population was supposed to increase at a rate of 1.5 percent until 2010, climbing from the 2000 Census figure of 26,911 to 26,980 in 2005 and 27,310 in 2010.

However, the U.S. Census Bureau estimates the county's population dropped to 26,817 in 2001, 26,720 in 2002 and 26,505 in 2003, a 1.5 percent within three years.

New Ulm has fared little better, having dropped 1.4 percent in population over the same period. The U.S. Census Bureau estimates the city's population dropped from the 2000 Census total of 13,594 to 13,545 in 2001, 13,491 in 2002 and 13,401 in 2003.

While the SDC projections did not go beyond the county level, it can be presumed the county's largest city would be expected to lead the way in that growth.

So, is this a matter of concern for New Ulm city officials?

City Manager Brian Gramentz wants to know how the Census Bureau came up with these estimates before passing judgment.

"If you're asking, will this affect the amount of money New Ulm would receive from the federal government? The answer is, no, it won't. That's based on the 2000 census figures until the next census is taken," he explained.

"But it's difficult to understand that we would have dropped as we're coming off of two record years in housing starts; we have several subdivision developments in the works, as well as a number of assisted-living developments."

Gramentz doesn't believe recent growth in and around Courtland has affected New Ulm, either.

Courtland's population has jumped 3.7 percent in the last three years, growing from 538 in 2000 to 558 in 2003. In fact, Courtland's growth rate exceeds Nicollet County's growth rate of 3.2 percent over the past three years.

To make matters worse in Brown County, most of the out-county communities aren't faring as well as New Ulm, according to Census Bureau estimates.

Sleepy Eye, the county's second largest city, has had its population shrink from 3,515 to 3,416, a drop of 99 or 2.8 percent. Springfield has lost 38 over the same period, going from 2,215 to 2,177, a 1.7 percent drop.

Hanska, at 432 in 2003, has lost 11 residents for a 2.5 percent drop over three years, and Comfrey has lost four residents since it recorded 357 inhabitants during the 2000 census.

Turns out tiny Cobden is the county's shining light, having retained its 61 residents through 2003 for zero change.

Meanwhile, Cottonwood, Redwood, Sibley and Watonwan counties -- and their communities -- all are suffering from the same affliction, resident flight.

And it's not a case of being up one year and down the next. In almost all cases, it's a matter of a steady, flat-line decline in population.

Ron Larsen can be reached at rlarsen@nujournal.com.