In Brown County, slow growth followed by rebound

By RON LARSEN

Journal Staff Writer

ST. PAUL -- Population growth during this decade in Brown County and in New Ulm is projected to only reach 1 percent, but it will rebound in the next two decades for a 9 percent growth rate over the 30-year period.

That's the word from Minnesota's State Demographic Center, which has developed population projections for the state, as well as its 87 counties, through 2030.

"I'm not surprised," said New Ulm City Manager Brian Gramentz, "because that was about what it was for the past 10 years."

With a 1-percent growth rate through 2010, Brown County trails Blue Earth (5), Nicollet (7), Sibley (7) and Watonwan (2) counties. However, going west, Redwood (-1), Renville (-1) and Cottonwood (-2) counties all are facing declining populations during this decade.

The population growth picture changes somewhat over the 30-year period.

Brown County overtakes Watonwan County (5) and ties Blue Earth County with its 9 percent growth by 2030.

Nicollet and Sibley counties will continue grow over the next two decades at a rate equal to or greater than for this decade. Over the 30-year period, Nicollet is expected to have a 14-percent growth rate, and Sibley's growth rate will accelerate to 20 percent.

The center has encouraging news for the three counties facing a negative growth rate in this decade. Wait until the next decade. All three will wind up in 2030 with a positive growth rate. Redwood is projected to have a 4 percent growth rate, Renville 2 percent and Cottonwood 1 percent.

The Region 9 Development Area, of which Brown County is a part, also will show routine growth with a 4-percent rate during this decade and a 10-percent rate for the 30 years.

All these growth rates pale in comparison with the state's projected growth rate, however. Minnesota which had a population of 4,919,479 in 2000 is expected to top 5 million by 2005 enroute to an 11-percent growth rate during this decade. For the 30-year period, the growth rate is projected at 27 percent.

The major growth-in-population areas will be the Twin Cities area suburban counties, the St. Cloud and Rochester areas, as well as the lakes area of north central Minnesota, the report concluded.

The state's population growth will be accompanied by some major shifting in age demographics, the center said.

With the "baby boomers" becoming the next geriatric generation, the median age will rise from 35.4 in 2000 to 40.2 in 2030, nearly a 5-year increase.

"The aging of the baby boom will produce an explosion in the 45- to 64-year-old population between 2000 and 2010, and the over-55 population will grow by more than 2 million in the coming 30 years," the report stated.

The aging population really isn't a concern at this point for New Ulm, Gramentz said.

"There are already projects involving private investment in assisted living and housing for the elderly where they don't have to cut the grass or shovel the walks," Gramentz said.

"I feel the best course for the city is to continue monitoring the situation, and if private interests aren't meeting the needs, then it may become necessary for the city to consider ways of providing more housing."