Population in New Ulm is up, but how much?

By CHRIS VETTER

Journal Staff Writer

NEW ULM -- The population in New Ulm has risen during the 1990s. However, the amount of that increase appears to be in dispute.

The U.S. Census released new population estimates this month for towns with at least 10,000 people. According to the federal report, New Ulm's population is 13,800, which is up 2.0 percent from the last official census in 1990.

City officials were surprised by the number, saying the federal estimate is low.

"I don't know how they compile the figures," said David Schnobrich, city planning and development director. "The state demographer has a different amount."

The Minnesota Demography Center, in its annual report, estimates New Ulm's population as 14,142, which represents a 4.5 percent increase in the 1990s.

"I'm surprised that there would be that much of a difference between the two," Schnobrich said. "I would think they would be using similar data."

One possible reason for the discrepancy is the timing of the survey. The Minnesota survey shows New Ulm's population as of April 1, 1999; the federal report is an estimate as of July 1, 1999. The three-month swing could be reflecting a drop when Martin Luther College is not in session during the summer, Schnobrich said.

"All students living in New Ulm at the time of the census are counted toward the city population," he said.

City Councilor Joel Albrecht was surprised by the federal report, saying the population estimate is too low. He pointed to several new housing developments and apartment complexes that were built since the 1990 census.

"For the most part, everything is full," Albrecht said.

Councilor Denis Warta noted that the town has grown in size, although the population might not have changed much.

"There are more households, but fewer people in each one," Warta said. "There are clearly more houses in New Ulm than 10 years ago."

Warta also said that for New Ulm to continue to grow in size, it must draw workers from other areas to town.

"Population growth based on having more children is just not the way cities are growing anymore," Warta said.

The number of people in New Ulm on any given workday well exceeds 13,800 or 14,150, Warta contends. He notes that people who live just outside of town, or drive to New Ulm from elsewhere in Brown or Nicollet County likely adds 2,000 people to the town's workday population.

City treasurer Gary Gleisner said the disparity between the two population estimates will have a minimal effect on how the city operates.

"We use (the data) for certain ratios, like per-capita debt and per-capita property tax ratio," Gleisner said.

The official census for 2000 is expected to be released in April.

"Until we get the census number, it's speculation as to what the correct number is," Schnobrich said.

The Minnesota Demography Center compiles a population estimate on each town in the state. The state officials use a combination of statistics, including the national census and a city's administrative data, such as new utility connections in town. The Demography Center then allows each town to respond to its findings before they are finalized with the Department of Revenue.

The Demographic Center estimates are offical for all state purposes, said state officials.

While New Ulm population has risen two percent in the 1990s, according to the federal population estimate, other nearby towns have struggled to maintain a base.

In Fairmont, the population has dropped below 11,000, with a 4.5 percent drop in the 1990s, the report states. Mankato's population is down 2 percent. Marshall has been consistent, with a 1.1 percent increase.

The largest-growth towns in the area with populations above 10,000 are North Mankato (up 7.9 percent) and Willmar (up 5.5 percent.)

There are 80 cities in Minnesota with a population of at least 10,000, the report states, with a majority of those cities in the Twin Cities metro area. New Ulm ranks 67th on the list.

To read the federal report, Web users can visit www.census.gov