Minnesota is on target for a warm winter

Above average

temperatures

through late

February

By FRITZ BUSCH

Journal Staff Writer

NEW ULM -- Go ahead and get out your long underwear, mittens and warm hat, but don't lay them on top of the dresser yet. If the prognosticators are right, you may not need them too much this winter.

Although the December temperature forecast is for close to average temperatures, Minnesota is on target for above average temperatures through late February, then cooling to average temperatures and a bit less snow than normal, according to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center.

Two straight warm winters would be unusual. Last winter was so warm, the temperature fell below zero only twice, a record. The unusually warm weather was caused by a persistent air flow from the Pacific, blocking arctic air from flowing deep into Minnesota, the National Weather Service said.

The center said a weak El Nino (pool of warming Pacific water) has begun to form, and it usually brings warm weather to the Midwest. However, some private meteorologists think El Nino will be too weak to have that effect this year.

Some forecasters think the Pacific winds will be punctuated by arctic air flows much of the winter, like the one that swept MInnesota Monday.

While 2002 is the fourth-wettest year on record with 30 inches of rain falling in June through October, the water hose has been shut off since October.

The Old Farmer's Almanac predicts an average December temperature of 26 degrees across the Upper Midwest, which is 7 degrees above average. Only a half inch of snow will fall in December -- a half inch below average -- the publication said. January temperatures will average 22 degrees, 10 degrees above average.

Lack of snow is fine with New Ulm weather observer Lonnie Spaeth.

"I'm happy as long as the roads are clear. As long as it doesn't snow, I don't have to shovel," said Spaeth, who works at the Brown County Rural Electric Association north of Sleepy Eye.

Sleepy Eye weather observer Brad Sellner thinks this winter will be a bit more severe than recent ones.

"We've had dry, mild winters for the most part since 1996-97," Sellner said. "This one will be more active with a few good, old-fashioned blizzards."

Sellner predicts measurable snow in the area by the middle of next week and a white Christmas.

"With cold air in place over much of the country, it's just a matter of time before the snow picks up," Sellner said. "I think El Nino is so weak and far away from here, it won't have much of an effect here."

Sellner sees a normal winter with average or below average temperatures and close to normal snowfall.

If you want to find snow, the Upper Michigan Peninsula has 3 1/2 to 7 inches. One to 3 inches of snow is on the ground in Southern Wisconsin.

Ice is still unsafe on Lake Mille Lacs but the water is cooling, according to reports.